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Middle East crisis redraws global tourist map​​​​​​​​​​​​

Global tourism hit a historic high in 2025 surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time, but with escalating tensions in the Middle East continuing to reshape travel patterns in 2026, travellers are increasingly opting for shorter, more affordable journeys, boosting demand within Europe and Asia.

According to Atradius, tourism demand in Europe and Asia could rise by 8% and 12% respectively under a baseline scenario.  However, if the conflict becomes prolonged, growth could slow sharply to 3% and 5%.

Mediterranean Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia are expected to benefit as travellers switch destinations, while markets dependent on long-haul travel, Middle East transit hubs and intercontinental routes face greater risks.

Europe remains the world’s leading tourism region, attracting 52% of all international arrivals. Asia ranks second with 22%, followed by the Americas at 14%, while the Middle East and Africa account for comparatively smaller proportions.  As a result, Europe is especially vulnerable to current challenges due to both the scale of its tourism sector and its reliance on imported energy.

“Leading airlines remain relatively confident about short-term fuel availability for the summer holiday season and do not expect large-scale cancellations. The more immediate concern is margins, with profits likely to be significantly reduced even where hedging arrangements cover 70–90% of fuel needs in the near term,” says Atradius’ Senior Underwriter in the UK, Nichola Harris.  “While larger carriers are better positioned to absorb this pressure, risks are more pronounced for smaller and regional players, which have more limited capacity to adapt and endure.”

Despite continued disruptions in aviation fuel supply networks, there is currently no evidence of a significant rise in credit risk within the air transport sector.  However, Atradius notes that airlines’ ability to withstand these challenges will depend largely on their financial position, fuel hedging practices, and capacity to pass higher costs on to customers through pricing



 
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