Atradius publishes Thailand report

 

Trade credit insurer Atradius (www.atradius.co.uk) has published a new country report on Thailand.

The new report (https://atradius.co.uk/reports/publicationscountry-report-asia-thailand-2020.html) forecasts a sharp economic slowdown for Thailand in 2020 with GDP expected to shrink by more than 5%.  However, the future outlook currently signals a potential rebound next year.

Thailand’s economy was already showing signs of weakness during 2019 with GDP growth decreasing to 2.4%, according to Atradius.  While household consumption remained robust, growth in fixed investment slowed and industrial production and exports contracted by 3.8% and 2.6% respectively, weighed down by sluggish global trade, US-China trade tensions and the strength of local currency, the Thai baht.

According to the report, exports, predominantly electronics and automotive, are forecast to fall by more than 15% this year, hit by supply chain disruption and deteriorating external demand.  Meanwhile, industrial production is expected to decrease by more than 10%, with automotive and electronics sectors value added forecast to contract 12% each.

Despite the drop in GDP expected for 2020, Atradius forecasts that Thailand’s economy will rebound by about 7% in 2021 – subject to the assumption that the Covid-19 pandemic will be contained this year allowing the global economy to begin to recover.