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Atradius forecasts show risks climbing across industries
The latest Industries Performance Forecast Per Market Industry report from Atradius shows global business conditions have deteriorated further, with the number of industries classified as high risk climbing sharply.
Across Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific, underwriters issued 555 sector forecasts, with 208 sectors now rated high risk – up by 14 sectors since January 2026. Just 140 sectors fell into low-risk categories, while 207 were assessed as moderate risk.
The biggest casualty of the latest review is the chemicals sector, which has suffered a wave of downgrades, particularly across Europe. In Belgium, chemicals fell from fair to poor as high energy costs and fierce international competition bite. While payment delays are increasing, production is expected to contract by 2.5% this year.
The Netherlands recorded one of the region’s sharpest deteriorations, with chemicals slipping from poor to bleak. Plant closures, weak investment, declining earnings and rising debt levels have compounded the impact of higher energy prices.
In Italy, chemical production is forecast to shrink by 4.6% in 2026 amid rising input costs, growing competition from China and pressure from US tariffs.
The UK chemicals sector was also downgraded to poor, with production expected to decline for a second consecutive year as energy costs and cheaper imports erode profitability.
While the overall picture has worsened, several sectors continue to outperform the benchmark. Food, pharmaceuticals, financial services, electronics/ICT and agriculture retain relatively favourable outlooks, while machines/engineering and services remain in mid-range territory. At the other end of the scale, transport, automotive, consumer durables and paper face elevated risks, with the bleakest assessments reserved for construction, metals/steel and textiles.
Italy accounted for several of the most severe downgrades in the report. Its automotive sector fell from poor to bleak despite expectations of a modest production recovery this year. Weak consumer demand, high energy costs and production relocations continue to weigh heavily on the industry. Construction and consumer durables in Italy also dropped into the bleak category as rising costs, liquidity pressures and subdued household spending undermine performance.
In France credit risk has increased across several sectors. The food industry was downgraded from good to fair after a surge in credit insurance claims and a sharp deterioration in the country’s agri-food trade balance. With order books remaining week, France’s machines and engineering sector slipped to poor as production continues to decline. Meanwhile, services also moved into the poor category following a rise in bankruptcies and persistently high claims activity.
One bright spot emerged in transport, which improved from bleak to poor as insolvencies eased slightly, although rising costs continue to challenge operators.
But not all developments were negative. In Sweden, machines and engineering improved from poor to fair on expectations of a return to growth in 2026. Sweden’s consumer durables and textiles sectors also moved up one notch, with services also witnessing a significant upgrade from bleak to fair, reflecting stronger underlying resilience.
The Dutch construction sector continues to improve moving from poor to fair as residential building activity accelerates. Stronger revenues and a decline in non-payments saw Belgium’s services sector move to fair.
However, transport and logistics remain under pressure. Fuel price volatility linked to the Gulf conflict hit profitability for the Czech transport sector with smaller operators particularly affected due to limited pricing power and long-term contracts preventing them from passing on rising costs.
Offering a snapshot of business performance and credit risk across the global economy Atradius’ Industries Performance Forecast Per Market Industry report covers 15 major industries in 37 representative markets, providing businesses with a detailed view of sector conditions and emerging risks around the world.